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Actually, if you keep the caulk up to snuff and repair any tears, the membrane should last a really long time. The white outer ablative coat will slowly wash off (that's what causes all that streaking on the sides of a trailer), and eventually you will begin to see the black membrane itself. Your roof is still good even then, although it may not look all that great and will get hotter than before. You only have to replace it when the black rubber starts to crack.
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