Price of Fuel and its effect on you - Page 16 - Montana Owners Club

richfaa · 07-21-2008, 10:45 AM

Stay tunned...The price did drive up due to a nothing storm in the Gulf and concerns about Iran.We are desperate here. The price has got to drive up or millions will be lost.Tuesday is a important day...

Contract nearing expiration date:.......
The August contract is set to expire Tuesday, which produced a volatile session Monday. Tuesday is expected to be equally erratic.

Speculators generally sell their contracts to producers just prior to the contracts' expiration so that the investors do not need to accept shipment of oil barrels.

"That sell-off date is so close, so it adds a bit more volatility to the market," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co. "Generally, on the expiration day, traders are trying to sell off their contracts

"

dsprik · 07-21-2008, 11:07 AM

So it seems that commodity traders are now going to be the subject of jokes, like the lawyers all used to be?

richfaa · 07-22-2008, 11:19 AM

Today was a significant day on oil.It ended the day at 127.95 down over 3.00 to day and nearly 20.00 over the last few days. The August contracts expired today. That means that the speculators who purchased in the last 30 days had to sell it at a profit or pay for it. Anyone who holds oil at 127.95 or less today and purchased the contract for more..took a big hit... They just could not drive the price up. Speculators lost many millions today. But that is what speculators do..they gamble and sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Could it be that the full results of the high price of energy are starting to take effect??? How the speculators interpret what happened today will tell the tale..If oil stays flat or the slide continues ..The bubble may have a slow leak.

dsprik · 07-22-2008, 11:42 AM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by richfaa

Anyone who holds oil at 127.95 or less today and purchased the contract for more..took a big hit... They just could not drive the price up. Speculators lost many millions today.

OK, everybody all together now...

"Awwwwwww ....."

Charlie · 07-22-2008, 11:45 AM

I'm afraid the oil bubble is not going away but this is a bump in the road. Richard Nixon promised independence on foreign crude in four years. That was 30 some odd years ago.

I agree Rich, that's what the traders do and unless we as a people lower our dependency on foreign crude we will continue to suffer. I feel the same as you, hope that a bunch of them choked on their paper today.

We've had the tech bubble, the housing bubble, now the oil bubble, how many more bubbles can they create and make the consumer suffer as they profit. Something has to be done to prevent the traders from putting it to the little guys time after time.

dsprik · 07-22-2008, 11:59 AM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by Charlie

Something has to be done to prevent the traders from putting it to the little guys time after time.

The only way to do that with oil is to 1. get it off the commodities trading block - and I have no idea how that could be accomplished (or what fallout there would be), or 2. make oil so doggone unattractive that speculators won't flock to it as a hedge against the dollar or inflation.

I thought everyone liked GOLD??? Don't play with OIL. Play with something that is not critical to consumers everyday lifeblood...

GOLD: GOOD. OIL: BAD. Repeat after me, traders.

skypilot · 07-22-2008, 12:12 PM

Oil bad - buy Gold -- and that is what they had been doing the past week; however, they have to sell their futures in oil to buy the Gold futures and many, many took a hit on their oil futures. Other precious metals also being affected some as traders scurry to find other things to hedge with.

dsprik · 07-22-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

quote:Originally posted by skypilot

Oil bad - buy Gold -- and that is what they had been doing the past week; however, they have to sell their futures in oil to buy the Gold futures and many, many took a hit on their oil futures. Other precious metals also being affected some as traders scurry to find other things to hedge with.

Skypilot, I did see that shift towards gold this last week or so, which was encouraging. Now if they just away from what we eat and put in our gas tanks each day we will be fine - I think...

richfaa · 07-22-2008, 01:48 PM

Charlie ..could not agree with you more. Skypilot look what happened to Gold and other precious metals today. They also took a dump. Investors bailed out of oil but did not switch to Gold as they usually do.. That is actually a good sign (for the consumer) all they did today was lose much money..What will happen tomorrow.????

Mrs. CountryGuy · 07-23-2008, 03:20 AM

The losses probably only made them bead a small forehead sweat, or better yet, gave them a terrific tax write off????

I don't feel for em.

As for the subject of this thread, we are still grounded, so, still effecting us, eh??

and even tho this is not really the correct thread, price of Diesel seen in last 2 days, $4.59 to $4.89, gas was $3.89 to $4.04. give or take, at these prices, a penny don't mean much, eh??

skypilot · 07-23-2008, 04:30 AM

Spoke with local jobber and his wife yesterday -- they are now sweating bullets because they took in 3 loads of $50K gas last week at 3 different stations. Price is now down a dime from a week ago (3.99 down to 3.89) and they (with the cost of credit card fees) will not break even at that price. A few cents profit on a gallon is wiped out by the 10 cent decrease overall. Now, when they get their next load of fuel (in his word - IF WE GET ANOTHER LOAD OF FUEL), it will be at a lower cost but they have to recoup what they paid for the last one. I made some comment about they had to make money on the earlier loads and his comment was not really - with the price going up as fast as it was for awhile, they ate some of that cost initially until all stations raised their prices, then they matched (sometimes led) the way. As volotile as the pricing was, they relied on their inside sales to cover their costs -- as those have decreased over 70 percent from last year (again according to them.). Tight times all around.

dsprik · 07-23-2008, 04:37 AM

But who's telling them to lower their pump prices to lose $$$? They should be able to keep their price even, then wait for the next load?

richfaa · 07-23-2008, 04:56 AM

If you are a company station then the company tells you via that little sat dish on the roof or a phone call where to set the price. Two BP station will look exactly alike. One company station the other independently owned and the prices can vary as the company sets the price on their stations and the independent is under no obligation to do that. The higher volume station may be able to better adjust to the varing price as they can pump more fuel in a short period. There is a huge Sheetz station up the street by the interstae and TPK and I will see 2,3 tanker trucks a day in there. Meanwhile the small marathon station down the road from them went out of business as he was lucky to pump 5K gallons a month. He could not pump enough fuel to keep up with the changing price. It is a complex issue and a day to day struggle for the independent owner.
Note that Gold is down 23.00 on opening today as speculators who also buy Gold have got to sell off gold to get the money to pay for the Oil Contracts that came up short. Most interesting... They are taking a double beating..lets hear it Dave..AWAAAAAAA.

c214dick · 07-23-2008, 05:12 AM

I guess we get so confused by the economic conditions that once again the advertised discussion topic gets out of whack. Now we're talking about the price of gold and if the local station owner is going to make a profit or not. What's up with that????? Sorry, I guess I'm off the topic also.

richfaa · 07-23-2008, 05:40 AM

Well.. The topic was how does the high cost of energy affect us...we are on the edge of the topic, but these are the why's and how's the price of energy gets so high and is effecting us. The price of Gold is related to how the speculators "speculate" as well as the struggle of the station owners to make a profit and all of this affects us.. It is confusing and complex and in my case I just like to understand and be able to see the "big picture" I guess I may be off topic with the " understanding" part and I will cease and desist. To re establish the topic..the price of energy is high and is effecting what we do..How we travel and our overall quality of life..

tom41 · 07-23-2008, 08:57 AM

dang!! well least my montana will be lighter after I sell off all my GOLD!! lol
tom

dsprik · 07-23-2008, 10:46 AM

Dick, my attitude is a direct result of the price of fuel and it's effect on me. I think I am right on target. The "price of gas" has had "this effect on (me)":

Do not count on me to participate in any "Adopt a Trader" program...

I am angry and I believe that this "bubble" was unnecessarily caused. My family is suffering and in some cases it is creating turmoil within that particular family.

I don't think that is off topic. If traders would have stayed more with gold and less with oil as a hedge against the falling dollar, AND if the govt individuals/committees in charge of oversight hadn't fallen asleep at the switch, the problem may have been a little less severe. This is strictly my opinion, though, and I am open to learning about new ideas.

Mrs. CountryGuy · 07-23-2008, 12:53 PM

You all know how it is affecting ole Carol and her CountryGuy, we are grounded.

Dave, I am with you, I am full of angst, poor Al, he has to listen to me rant and rave, whine and cry.

I dreamed of traveling, maybe even full timing, since before 1985. In 2003 we FINALLY got the truck and the rig of our dreams, and a unit that we felt would do the western USA without us having to get out and push it up the mountains.

Since Al retired in 2001 we have lost a bucket load of cash in our "portfolio". We cannot sell our house, even if we wanted to, without lowering the price a bunch, maybe making a bit, but, the realtors line of a house increasing 100% every 10 years is a crock, sorry if any of you MOCers are in real estate.

Our grocery bill is jumping by leaps and bounds, the electric bill just went up a lot, propane in the summer is running $2.69 a gallon, and even tho we have been gone the last few winters our propane bills have still been close to $1000 a year, and that is with the heat down to around 47 degrees for 3 months or more. If we stay here in the winter, I am not sure just how much propane we will go though, sure, depends, mild winter or freezing cold, frost up to the eyeballs cold???

Al retired to not have to work, he objects strongly to going back to work, even part time. For now, lets say, that ain't gonna happen.

My research for fee work, that used to buy my new computer every three years has dried up to nothing, many researchers believe they can find it all on the internet, they cannot, but they think they can, so they don't hire me. I always preferred the research for free and helping others that way anyway, I am not heartbroken about that loss, but, that income is gone.

All this said, the mortgage is paid, the temps are mild right now, and we have the windows open and the air conditioner off. The groceries is still on the table. So, we do have things to be thankful for.

Others here at MOC really get bent out of shape, I am so sorry, but, I am madder than HE*% about this. My life dream is in shambles. We are studying our options, so far, we have come up with very little, as the portfolio, and the prices of stuff these days sorta are not a good mix eh?? I have even heard comments that if we cannot afford to put fuel in the truck then maybe we should not have a unit. Now, that really hurt this ole gal. Crushed me a lot.

Yea, I am full of angst, and sadness. I still hope, but, right now, no, I am not full of positive feel good vibes. That is how it is affecting me, period. It is not pretty, if you want pretty go look at a sunset or sunrise. The brash reality is that there are a number of MOCers that just cannot run down the road, we are grounded, madder than hornets, and it is not feel good time.

When you retire, you expect that your $$ will last "X" amount of time, and that as you get older, prices will have gone up, it is called inflation. Who knew?? that things would get that bad that quick. Go back and look at what you paid for stuff just 5 years ago. Our lives have eroded since then. Not just ole Carol and her CountryGuy, all of us.

OKKK, I'll go away now, and steam somewhere else. Maybe the back yard, the geese don't mind my screaming out in frustration.

Plus that is a good place to contemplate and try to find a way out of this for us. Or, better put, a way out that we can live with.

c214dick · 07-23-2008, 03:05 PM

Sorry for misunderstanding the purpose of this thread. I thought there might be some positive suggestions. I guess I'm looking for something else so will discontinue subscribing to this thread and only concentrate on the ones that give direct answers and suggestions to specific questions.

Mrs. CountryGuy · 07-23-2008, 03:44 PM

Dick,

I might misunderstand your last post, but, there is another thread where we are talking about dealing with this high fuel thing,

is this the thread you meant??

http://www.montanaowners.com/forums/...ad.php?t=29662

If you cannot tell, I would love to see some great ideas on how to get back on the road. There were a few over in this thread, nothing real earth shattering. Helpful tho.

Think what we need here is a miracle, eh?? SIGHHH

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